Monday, November 26, 2007

More from NAR

Presented by: John Tuccillo – former NAR chief economist (before Lereah)

*What’s next:
Having traveled overseas recently and looking at the international news, John believes oil will hit $100 per barrel. We are accumulating 4 billion dollars of debt per year from foreign governments. The falling dollar will slow recovery.

*We need to look at stats available from the MLS in all areas of the US:

  • Number of new listings on the market (sellers need a reality check)
  • Days on market (Faster turnover is a sign of market pick-up)
  • Sales price to list price ratio (Disappearing price cuts signal a turnaround)

*When the market turns around, there will be a “tsunami” of first time buyers and they will be Gen X and Y.

*Boomers comprise the second home market. They are used to relationship marketing.

*With Gen X and Y, there will even be more of a need for tech mastery. Gen X and Y do not want to be emotionally involved. There needs to be new channels of communication for these generations.

*The demand will begin in 2010 and skyrocket until 2015. This wave will be bigger than the boomers.

*A website is equivalent to indoor plumbing- a necessity. It is entry level technology.

*Consumers will control what they want to see, how they see it and when they want to see it:

  • Blogs, podcasts and chat rooms are the channels where these generations will receive their information. They like anonymity rather than relationships.

Today- you MUST treat real estate as a business:

You HAVE to have a business plan. There was a survey of 800 Realtors, only 2/3 had a plan. Consumers want convenience. Agents should be the force to get the transaction closed. It has to be all about the consumer.

Value proposition for 2008

  • Know your customer
  • Provide service
  • Provide convenience
  • Save them time
  • Eliminate or minimize stress

Competencies you need to know how to do in 2008

  • Counsel the consumer- added value
  • Be a good negotiator
  • Be a good manager- be able to take care of contract to closing

Wednesday, November 21, 2007

News from NAR

I had the opportunity to attend the NAR Convention in Las Vegas last week. I was interested in hearing what Lawrence Yun, NAR’s new Chief Economist had to say about the marketplace. His topic was: Economic Issues & Residential Real Estate Business Trends Forum

He said 2008 is a year of opportunity. While sales are down in 2007, it has still been the fifth best year ever in real estate. He mentioned this is because all real estate is local- like the weather. You can’t give an average weather forecast for the nation. You give a forecast for a city or a region.

Prices were down nationally 1 ½% after a run up of about 50% in many regions over the past 5 years. Sub-prime loans affected less than 10% of all homeowner nationwide. Yun was optimistic seeing a rebound in 2008 due to the following market conditions:

  • GDP of 2.8%
  • Job growth of 1.1%
  • Inflation to remain at slightly under 3%
  • Interest rates to rise only slightly

He believes because sales are down this year and though there have been fewer construction starts, there will be strong pent up demand in many areas. That was very good news for the audience of Realtors.